Pattern recognition over 40 years. They know that a team playing a midweek European away match will lose on Saturday. They sense a dressing room rot before the leaks go to the press.

Journalist Raphael Honigstein or scout Tor-Kristian Karlsen. The blind spot: Confirmation bias. They remember the one time they called an upset (Greece 2004) and forget the 50 times they were wrong. 3. The Superstitious Pragmatist (The Fan) Never underestimate the fan’s prediction. It is not based on logic. It is based on trauma.

“We always lose to Stoke on a rainy Tuesday.” “My team hasn’t won when I wear this jersey since 2019.” “The full moon is in Scorpio.”